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To predict how the world's human population will grow, demographers must consider many factors, including the age structure of each country and the prevalence of life-threatening diseases, such as AIDS, malaria, and cholera. The table at right shows statistics for world population growth from 1950 to 2000 with projected figures through the year 2050. Current projections suggest that by 2050, the world population may reach more than 9 billion people.
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World Population Growth
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Will the human population grow at its current rate, or will it level out to a logistic growth curve and become stable? By 2050 the growth rate may level off or even decrease. This may happen if countries that are currently growing rapidly move toward the demographic transition. The figures in the table show that the growth rate in 2050 is projected to be 0.43 percent. This rate is a decrease from the peak growth rate of 2.19 percent, reached in the early 1960s.
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A lower growth rate means that the human population will be growing more slowly over the next 50 years. But, because the growth rate is still larger than zero, our population will continue to grow. Most ecologists suggest that if this growth does not slow down even more, there could be serious damage to the environment as well as to the global economy. On the other hand, many economists assert that science, technology, and changes in society will control those negative impacts on the environment and economy.
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